Thirty-two potential Super Bowl champions are crowned every offseason. As optimism and hope are dashed once the season begins, that number falls quickly. We're here to separate fact from fiction and deliver a reality check on every NFL team. Check out the AFC version here.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | CAR | CHI
DAL | DET | GB | LAR
MIN | NO | NYG | PHI
SF | SEA | TB | WAS
Arizona Cardinals
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Kyler Murray and the offense take the league by storm, with the former No. 1 pick being named NFL MVP. This offense has all the potential to be a fine-tuned, well-balanced attack that can win on the ground or in the air, and if that's the case, the defense needs to just be good enough.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: The defense - which ranked 31st in points allowed last year - is again horrendous, making any production from Murray and the offense irrelevant. Arizona allowed 25-plus points in 10 of its 17 games last season, producing a 1-9 record.
Who they need to break out: Trey McBride put himself on the map last season with 81 catches, 825 yards, and three touchdowns. But for this Cardinals team to get back into postseason contention, he'll have to break into superstardom. A full season with a healthy Murray under center means it's possible.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Newcomer Jonah Williams is expected to fill in at right tackle but the former Bengal is trending in the wrong direction. Williams is coming off his lowest-graded season by PFF and his pass-blocking grade has declined every year since 2020.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Paris Johnson, their sixth overall pick in 2023, is moving from right tackle to left tackle. After a spotty rookie campaign that ended on a positive note, Johnson's going to have to keep it rolling to prove he can be a franchise piece as Murray's blind-side protector.
The bottom line: This Cardinals offense is fun to look at and wonder what it can be. Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., McBride, Michael Wilson. Oh boy! Oh boy is also what you may say when watching Arizona's defense, which appears to be a severe weakness again.
Atlanta Falcons
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Wait, Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles last season? No one seems to notice as the Falcons' new quarterback takes Atlanta back to the Super Bowl. The three-headed monster that is Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts hits its full potential with Cousins under center.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Cousins was better off retiring instead of trying to return from a severe injury at age 36. Michael Penix Jr. eventually starts but struggles massively due to a lack of preseason reps.
Who they need to break out: London, who finally has a competent QB. Assuming Cousins stays healthy, London will have a Pro Bowl passer throwing to him for the first time. Now it's his turn to return the favor by putting up Pro Bowl-worthy numbers.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Justin Simmons was let go by the Broncos this offseason in a cap-saving move, but perhaps there were more than just financial motivations: Simmons allowed a career-high 14.1 yards per reception last season, per PFF.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: The Falcons committed $180 million with $100 million in guarantees to Cousins to change the trajectory of the franchise despite him coming off an Achilles injury, and then drafted his potential successor. Expectations were already going to be high for a QB coming to a new franchise with a big price tag, but Atlanta's put Cousins in a serious pressure cooker.
The bottom line: The Falcons will go as far as Cousins' Achilles takes them, and there's potential for a serious postseason run if he performs solidly. Veteran additions Matthew Judon and Simmons also make this defense more legitimate. Of course, this whole project could also implode if Cousins struggles, causing a year-long QB dilemma with Penix waiting in the wings.
Carolina Panthers
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Let's be honest - Super Bowl? The Panthers aren't there yet, not in any world. But 2024 is champagne-worthy if Dave Canales works his magic on Bryce Young like he did Baker Mayfield last year in Tampa Bay.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Young moves another step closer to the ledge before jumping headfirst into bust territory. Even with additional weapons and protection, if Young can't hack it in the NFL, Carolina's back in the basem*nt with no short-term fix available.
Who they need to break out: Uh, Bryce Young. In the Super Bowl era, Young's one of two rookie passers to average 5.5 yards per attempt or fewer, fewer than 200 yards per game, and complete under 60% of his passes. Alarm bells are ringing. (And Chris Weinke says hello.)
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Adam Thielen had his first 100-catch, 1,000-plus-yard season since 2018 last year, but that was more of a given than impressive considering how poor Carolina's roster was. The 34-year-old likely comes back down to earth in 2024 with Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette cutting into his target share.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Let's go with Robert Hunt, in the spirit of this not being Bryce Young. The guard inked a mammoth $100-million deal in free agency to beef up Young's offensive line, but can his play make him worthy of that price?
The bottom line: The Panthers bolstered the receiving room and offensive line, but it won't matter if Young doesn't improve. No one's expecting anything crazy from Canales in Year 1 but if he's unable to save Young or at least have him demonstrate believable signs of progress, this franchise is doomed for the foreseeable future.
Chicago Bears
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Caleb Williams is the NFC incarnation of Patrick Mahomes and the talent on defense lives up to its price tag. OK, breathe, Bears fans. It's too early to start circling the date of Super Bowl LIX, but you can and should be excited about having an incredibly fun and legitimate QB prospect after his highlight-filled preseason.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: It turns out preseason football is in fact not representative of real NFL action, Williams deals with a steep learning curve when playing on script in the pocket, and a shaky offensive line has him running for his life. Despite investing heavily in the defense, it underperforms again under head coach Matt Eberflus, who the franchise bids farewell to after the season.
Who they need to break out: Braxton Jones had a mediocre year in 2023, being called for nine penalties over 11 games, though he was banged up with a neck injury. If Williams is going to be a generational QB, Jones needs to keep him safe.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: The Bears didn't give up much to get Keenan Allen - and that's a good thing. Now 32, the aging receiver is competing with DJ Moore and emerging rookie Rome Odunze, who's already built great chemistry with Williams. It won't be shocking if Allen ends up third in that pecking order by the end of the year.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Eberflus. After two disappointing seasons, it may be three strikes and he's out. Besides, the Bears surely won't think twice about potentially pairing Williams with an offensive-minded head coach.
The bottom line: If you're watching the Bears hoping they can make a surprise deep postseason run, you may be disappointed. If you're watching the Bears hoping to be amazed by Williams and perhaps see them fight for a wild-card spot, you'll probably have a great time.
Dallas Cowboys
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Dak Prescott throws for nearly 5,000 yards and 40-plus touchdowns as Dallas' aerial attack becomes the talk of the league. While Prescott's doing that, a star-studded defense racks up takeaways and the Cowboys finally overcome their playoff demons.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Distractions prove too much to handle as Prescott's contract situation uncomfortably hangs over the team. Trevon Diggs' injury is the first of many on defense and the loss of defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is a crushing blow. Jerry Jones also realizes Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook belong in an antique shop and not an NFL backfield.
Who they need to break out: It feels odd to say a rookie needs to break out, but the Cowboys could use a strong introduction from Tyler Guyton. Their 2024 first-round pick immediately excelling at left tackle will pay big dividends for the offense.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Somehow Elliott is again the face of the Cowboys' rushing attack. He led the Patriots with 642 rushing yards last season, but don't be fooled, he still screams inefficiency. His last two seasons have seen him average 3.9 and 4.1 yards per touch respectively.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Jones can't fire himself, but he sure can fire Mike McCarthy, who somehow survived as head coach after Dallas was embarrassingly blown out in last year's wild-card round. Yes, Dallas has won 12 games in all three of McCarthy's seasons, but he has only one win in three postseason trips. He's hanging on by a thread.
The bottom line: This feels like a true do-or-die year for the Cowboys. McCarthy's future is tied to his postseason success, and a lot of stars need to be paid with not enough money to go around to make everyone happy. Can Prescott end the playoff curse and get them to the promised land? Yes, but unless he has a time machine capable of going back to 2016, a backfield led by Elliott isn't going to cut it. Prescott will likely be blamed regardless of how well he plays.
Detroit Lions
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Coordinator Ben Johnson serves up another offense that makes fans salivate, Jared Goff has a 2023-esque year, Jahmyr Gibbs breaks out for 1,500-plus yards, and Jameson Williams is the deep threat he was supposed to be. Detroit's offense and an improved secondary means Dan Campbell can land a knockout punch on even the league's most elite teams.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Their revamped cornerback room, now featuring Carlton Davis and Terrion Arnold, isn't a significant upgrade over last season. No team allowed more air yards (3,246) than the Lions last season, per Pro Football Reference. In fact, they allowed nearly 600 yards more than any other team, and another tough year in the secondary will hamper Detroit regardless of its offensive output.
Who they need to break out: We already touched on Williams, but the offense should be lethal whether he takes another step or not. Let's focus on defense instead, where Detroit could use a tone-setting year from Jack Campbell, who PFF graded 76th out of 82 eligible linebackers during his rookie year. The Lions need a lot more than that from someone drafted 18th overall in 2023.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Marcus Davenport showed why he was drafted in the first round when he recorded nine sacks in 2021, but he's notched only 2.5 in the two seasons since. After a stop in Minnesota last year, Davenport's at risk of being a forgotten name if he doesn't show much in Detroit.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Aaron Glenn's been the defensive coordinator for three seasons, and his unit's never ranked higher than 23rd in points allowed. This defense is as good as it's ever been with Aidan Hutchinson, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph, plus new additions D.J. Reader, Davis, and first-round cornerback Arnold. Glenn's got no excuses this season.
The bottom line: These aren't your dad's Lions. This team is actually good - like, very good. A Cinderella run led to a division title and NFC title-game appearance last year, and there's no reason expectations should be lower in 2024. Barring a few holes, Detroit's biggest weak spot isn't at a specific position, but more related to how Dan Campbell and Co. deal with newfound pressure to win. If there's one thing the Lions aren't historically known for, it's their ability to win.
Green Bay Packers
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Jordan Love's red-hot eight-game stretch to end 2023 is replicated over all of 2024. With Love cemented as a star, Josh Jacobs is rejuvenated by his change of scenery and carries the ground game. All the investments made defensively make Green Bay one of the most dangerous NFL teams.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Receivers Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs plateau instead of breaking out. The ground game is like watching a pickup truck drive in bumper-to-bumper traffic as Jacobs - who averaged a career-worst 3.5 yards per carry last year - is sluggish and slow. Someone please help Love.
Who they need to break out: Pick any of the aforementioned four receivers or tight end Luke Musgrave. Reed looked like a star in the making during his rookie year, while even fifth-rounder Wicks shined with 581 yards. Musgrave taking a sophom*ore leap in addition to a number of the wideouts making strides would make this Packers' offense an air show.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Josh Myers is only 26 years old but is arguably the Packers' offensive line's weakest link. His five sacks allowed were tied for fifth most among all centers last season, while his 28 pressures surrendered also landed him in the top 10, per PFF.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Love had a phenomenal end to his first year as a starter and in return got a contract that pays him $55 million per season, tied for the highest in the NFL. Is that too much money too soon? After all, Love had a very Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde-like season, throwing 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions in his first nine games and 18 touchdowns to one pick over his last eight.
The bottom line: This Packers team's floor is higher than 2023 after Green Bay showed what it can be toward the end of last year. The ceiling will be determined by how much young stars like Love, his receiving corps, and emerging defensive pieces like Karl Brooks and Lukas Van Ness step up. There's a lot of potential in Green Bay, but potential's worth nothing until it's realized. The fourth-hardest strength of schedule (.526) will reveal the truth about this young roster's makeup.
Los Angeles Rams
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Aaron Donald comes out of retirement midseason while Sean McVay does his greatest coaching job yet. It's easy to see how a young Rams team can mature from hopeful playoff squad to legitimate competitor, but it's harder to envision how the Rams close the Donald-sized void in the middle of their defense without a few growing pains first.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Matthew Stafford's body breaks down for good as he enters his age-36 season, leaving McVay debating another TV gig after having to endure the Jimmy Garoppolo experience. Donald's absence only adds to McVay's pain as the domino effect of losing this generation's greatest defensive player is too much to overcome.
Who they need to break out: Kobie Turner didn't look like a rookie in 2023, recording a team-high nine sacks. But he did that with Donald alongside him and will have to do it on his own in 2024.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Cooper Kupp's missed time in each of the last two seasons due to lower-body injuries. While everyone knows he still has the talent to produce like one of the NFL's best receivers, the question is whether his body will allow it. Kupp's now 31 and the Rams already appear to have their franchise receiver of the present and future in Puka Nacua.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Congrats to Chris Shula, the Rams' next defensive coordinator. All he's doing is succeeding a defensive coaching wiz like Raheem Morris, and without the services of the NFL's most dominant interior rusher. Good luck!
The bottom line: Don't kid yourself: Donald's loss is going to hurt badly. Everyone collectively will need to step up on defense. On the bright side, if Stafford stays healthy, there's no reason the offense can't be as good as last season. But an unpredictable front seven and secondary probably means repeating last year's 10-7 is this roster's ceiling rather than its floor.
Minnesota Vikings
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Tom Brady throws on a Sam Darnold Vikings jersey without anyone noticing. The Vikings are seemingly pushing ahead to win now but it feels a tad silly. They're counting on Darnold having an almost unheard of seventh-year breakout season, while the rest of their key players need to overachieve, as well.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Darnold makes poor decisions and struggles to protect the football. Essentially: If Darnold plays like Darnold, they're in trouble. Meanwhile, Jonathan Greenard's addition alone isn't enough to replace 24.5 sacks lost after Danielle Hunter and D.J. Wonnum departed in the offseason, which causes ripple effects throughout the defense.
Who they need to break out: Ivan Pace Jr. went undrafted last year, but you wouldn't know that watching him play. The Cincinnati product started 11 games and recorded 102 tackles, one interception, and 2.5 sacks. He'll get the green dot as on-field communicator in his second season, signaling how much confidence the Vikings have in him.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Stephon Gilmore was a late signing who may not bring the impact the Vikings are looking for. The veteran cornerback allowed 6.9 yards per attempt - his most since PFR began tracking in 2018 - and four touchdowns last season.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: If there was ever a time for Darnold to step up, the Vikings hope it's 2024. With J.J. McCarthy out for the year, the ball will be in Darnold's hands. He got votes of confidence from his head coach and star wideout Justin Jefferson, but they'll be dismissed as routine camp chatter until Darnold shows his talent consistently.
The bottom line: It's probably best to fast-forward to 2025. I know Vikings fans want to believe Darnold can shock the world, but it hasn't happened yet and odds are it never will. The good news: There's still enough talent here with Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson (once he returns), and Brian Flores' defense for this group to at least keep most games competitive.
New Orleans Saints
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's system is the perfect fit for Derek Carr, who sets a new career high in touchdown passes, thanks mostly to the revitalization of Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams as rushers. And for the fifth straight year, the Saints' defense is top 10 in points allowed.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Carr's arrival turns truly sour in his second season in New Orleans. His conservative play begins to lose the locker room and head coach Dennis Allen is unable to keep this sinking ship afloat as his aging defense gets hit with major regression.
Who they need to break out: The Saints' defense is filled with a few recognizable names and others expected to take next steps into becoming household names. Bryan Bresee fits that description. A first-round pick in 2023, Bresee had 4.5 sacks in his rookie year but wasn't trusted in run defense. Even if he remains a situational interior pass-rusher, Bresee doubling his sack tally would help maintain New Orleans' high standard of defensive football.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Where's Cameron Jordan? The Saints' defensive leader produced a measly two sacks and six QB hits in 2023, his lowest since his rookie campaign. He's going to play more on the interior this season and if that doesn't change his output, a shift to the bench could be next.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Carr was supposed to be the franchise's answer to the Drew Brees problem, but he hardly moved the needle as the Saints missed the postseason for the third straight time. While his 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions are tolerable, the Saints need more than decent box-score stats from their QB to get back to the playoffs.
The bottom line: Like in years past, this Saints team has a very tight operating window. They probably won't be horrid, but they don't appear to be a championship-caliber squad. Would it surprise anyone if they finish 9-8 again? Probably not, but luckily for them, their strength of schedule is tied for the NFL's easiest (.453).
New York Giants
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Daniel Jones uses the haters as fuel and has an even better season than he did in 2022. Meanwhile, rookie superstar Malik Nabers elevates Jones even higher as a passer, while Devin Singletary (who's exceeded over 1,000 scrimmage yards in three straight seasons) looks like a lite version of Saquon Barkley. And the defense goes from 26th in points allowed to top three. (Do you hear that? That's the alarm, signaling the end of this crazy fever dream.)
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Jones' erratic QB play rears its ugly head again, like it has over the majority of his NFL career. Without Barkley, a bargain-bin collection of running backs can't hide the fact Jones is an extreme detriment to any offense unless there's a strong ground game to mask his deficiencies.
Who they need to break out: Deonte Banks displayed encouraging signs in his rookie year with two interceptions and a 55.2% completion rate on 96 targets, per PFR. He also showed some shakiness with four touchdowns and 606 receiving yards allowed. He's going to be the Giants' top corner, but New York needs him mentioned as one of the game's rising stars after 2024.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: It'll be hard for Jones to decline from rock bottom, so let's go with the entire Giants secondary. Letting Xavier McKinney depart in free agency is a major loss, as New York must replace the jack-of-all-trades defensive back. McKinney's play in the box, slot, and back end of the secondary made many lives easier.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: This season will be head coach Brian Daboll's last in New York if nothing changes. The Giants exceeded expectations in his first season but have only gone backward since. Now he'll also have to answer for the defense after former defensive coordinator's Don Martindale resignation.
The bottom line: Putting your faith in the Giants being a playoff competitor means putting your faith in Jones, and that feels impossible to do at this stage. Further, New York has the sixth-hardest schedule this season (.516). This may get ugly.
Philadelphia Eagles
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni get back on the same page; this team was 10-1 last year before the wheels came off. The club is improved thanks to the additions of Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson, and new coordinators on both sides of the ball should fit in perfectly. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore serves as a great middleman for coach and QB, while Vic Fangio should repair a defense that allowed 25.2 points per game, third worst in the league.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Sirianni can't control the locker room as Hurts and other teammates fracture from their head coach for good. The Eagles still win a reasonable amount of games thanks to a loaded roster, but nowhere near as many as they should. The playoffs are an afterthought as Sirianni's sent packing.
Who they need to break out: No one's asking Cam Jurgens to be the next Jason Kelce, but how adequately Kelce's void is filled will likely dictate how good this offensive line can be. Nothing's more important than the trenches in Philly, and Jurgens, who spent his time at right guard last year, will be a huge factor.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: What Darius Slay's been able to do is nothing short of remarkable - he was a Pro Bowl cornerback last year in his age-32 season. But he can't avoid declining forever and even the slightest drop-off in play could be catastrophic for the Eagles' entire secondary.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: It's time for Sirianni to get his act together. The Eagles coach felt some brotherly love upon his arrival, but Philly swiftly tried to give him a brotherly shove out of town after 2023's disastrous collapse. Ownership likely won't save him a second time.
The bottom line: This is a Super Bowl roster. Whether the Eagles have a Super Bowl-winning coach is another story. The firepower on offense is enough to keep defensive coordinators up at night. You may be able to cover A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith but what about a third corner to stop Dotson? Even with adequate corner coverage, is there enough manpower in the box to stop this tough O-line and Barkley? The only thing standing between Philadelphia and another Super Bowl run may be Sirianni.
San Francisco 49ers
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Everyone holding out - looking at you, Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk - is actually on the field. Christian McCaffrey, who's already dealing with a calf injury, stays healthy, and Nick Bosa powers a formidable defense and collects his second Defensive Player of the Year Award.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Aiyuk gets traded, leaving Deebo Samuel exposed as a receiver. Williams continues his holdout into the season and McCaffrey reverts back to being glass. This leaves a conundrum for Brock Purdy, who now has a supporting cast that even Kyle Shanahan can't scheme his way out of. San Francisco heads into the offseason with some lingering Purdy doubt.
Who they need to break out: Ji'Ayir Brown made the most of his limited rookie playing time, grabbing two interceptions. He's now being elevated to a full-time starter. If he's placed in a position to succeed like he was in college as a deep, ballhawk safety, his instincts should put him in Pro Bowl or All-Pro conversations.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Leonard Floyd's been a model of consistency with four straight seasons of at least nine sacks, and signing him to line up opposite Bosa sounds like a dream come true. But Floyd will soon be 32 and could be in line for a drop in performance after recording multiple pressures in only one of his final eight games last season (including postseason).
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Steve Wilks brought results but was an awkward fit in San Francisco; his defensive coordinator tenure lasted only one season before he was fired. The 49ers are hoping internal hire Nick Sorensen is better suited for the role. He was the defensive passing specialist in 2023, after all, so few know this defense better than him. Hopefully he passes the test, as former NFL defensive coordinator Brandon Staley is on staff, perhaps waiting on Sorensen's downfall.
The bottom line: If contract issues with Aiyuk and Williams are resolved, this 49ers team is again among the NFC's best. It's tough to find reasons to argue against the defense, which has a ferocious line, a great linebacking corps, and a savvy secondary. At the end of the day, though, it's the same old song and dance until Shanahan proves he can win the big one.
Seattle Seahawks
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Head coach Mike Macdonald gives the Seahawks' defense a Ravens-esque makeover, turning it from a unit that finished 30th in yardage allowed last year to a juggernaut. A fiery Geno Smith again plays like no one believes in him and becomes a star instead of an above-average starting QB.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: The offensive line is a revolving door guiding pass-rushers to Smith. The veteran QB's production also takes another tumble, as his completion percentage has already fallen five points and his passer rating dropped below 100 last season. Even worse, Macdonald proves to be the beneficiary of a talented Ravens defense rather than a game-changing coach.
Who they need to break out: Seattle didn't give Dre'Mont Jones a big bag in free agency for only 4.5 sacks. If there's any player the organization's hoping Macdonald can squeeze a little something extra from, it's the 27-year-old defensive lineman. The possibilities are endless for Jones, who's slated to dabble on the edge a bit more and schemed to succeed in a front seven that also features Leonard Williams.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: The Seahawks reshaped their entire linebacker group with Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks out and Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson in. Baker was a six-year starter with the Dolphins but is at risk of being swallowed in Wagner's and Brooks' shadows. Baker allowed a completion rate of 84.8% and carried a missed-tackle rate of 12.4% in 2023, both career lows, per Pro Football Reference.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: It's unlikely Charles Cross is a top-10 pick if the 2022 draft reoccurred today. The Seahawks left tackle was taken to be a bouncer for Smith's pocket, but he's looked like a very welcoming lineman instead, allowing six sacks and 42 pressures, per PFF.
The bottom line: You can talk yourself into this team as a playoff contender again thanks to a three-headed receiving threat and an already strong secondary consisting of Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon ... if you can convince yourself the O-line additions are enough and that Macdonald can extract enough pass-rushing juice to let the cornerbacks feast.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Dave Canales who? Liam Coen's offense serves as an even better fit for Baker Mayfield, who goes off for 35 touchdowns and over 4,500 yards. With Mayfield firing again and another stout Todd Bowles defense, the Bucs catch fire at the perfect time and go on a storybook late-season run.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Mayfield's 2023 resurgence was an illusion produced by Canales. Without him, the QB reverts to being ordinary. There's no backfield support either, as running back Rachaad White once again fails to crack even 4 yards per carry. Amid divisional improvements, Tampa Bay falls from first to worst.
Who they need to break out: Calijah Kancey showed off his pass-rushing chops in spurts as a rookie, producing four sacks and 34 pressures, per PFF. If he can take it a step further in 2024, the Bucs could feature one of the game's scariest defensive lines as he pairs up with Vita Vea.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Lavonte David, Tampa's heart and soul, isn't slowing down. Or is he? David's 34, ancient for starting linebackers. Can he buck the trend and have another strong year? Decline may already be evident, as David went from PFF's third-highest graded linebacker in 2022 to 25th last season.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Let's lump together offensive coordinator Coen and QB Mayfield here. Fresh off a $100-million extension, Mayfield's eager to prove he's turned a corner for good, and serious issues will arise if he struggles. There's a lot on the line for both.
The bottom line: The Buccaneers shocked the world in 2023. Now they carry expectations to improve, and that could be their downfall. Mayfield's never strung two great seasons together, while the defense needs big jumps from young players like pass-rushers Yaya Diaby, Kancey, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and cornerback Zyon McCollum. Maybe that's too much to ask all at once.
Washington Commanders
They won't win the Super Bowl unless: Dan Quinn's arrival makes an immediate impact and last year's No. 32 defense becomes a great unit overnight. Also, all the draft evaluators weren't just wrong about Jayden Daniels, they were comically wrong. He's not only NFL-ready, he's one of the NFC's best passers. Now, maybe this day is coming, but it all happening in 2024 seems like a pipe dream.
They'll be a dumpster fire if: Daniels' flaws are exposed too early after he's named the Week 1 starter. The rookie QB struggles as a passer while his O-line also does him no favors.
Who they need to break out: One of Quinn's first big moves as head coach was bringing Dorance Armstrong Jr. over from Dallas. Armstrong posted 16 sacks combined over his last two seasons. He's being given a major opportunity, and a huge 2024 from him will greatly benefit Quinn's defense.
Who's at risk of full-blown decline: Austin Ekeler's days as a dynamic dual-threat running back could be over. The Chargers let the 29-year-old walk in free agency after a career-low 3.5 yards per carry in 2023. His production as a receiver also cratered; his 31.1 receiving yards per game were his lowest since 2018. Joining a backfield with Brian Robinson may keep Ekeler fresher, but it's fair to wonder how much is left in the tank.
Who's under the most pressure to perform: Offensive guru Kliff Kingsbury is running out of opportunities to translate his genius to the NFL. A four-year run in Arizona with Kyler Murray produced only one playoff appearance and an offense that never finished above 11th in scoring. Kingsbury took a hiatus in 2023, but another poor showing may mean he's done in the league for good.
The bottom line: The Commanders took the right steps for the future with Daniels positioned as a potential franchise QB. However, there's still a lot wrong in the short term. The receiving depth behind Terry McLaurin is unproven, the backfield's uninspiring, and some of the talent added defensively will only serve as transitional pieces. If you want a cookie, Washington: This team should at least be better than 2023's 4-13 outfit.
